"He who laughs has not yet heard the bad news."  Bertolt Brecht

Whether you think that passing the Bar Exam is "a mortal lock" may turn on whether you're a "glass-half-full" or a "glass-half-empty" person.  If you tend look on the bright side, first time General Bar Examination pass rates of 50%  and 68% in February and July 2010 may mean you'll pass "more likely than not."  If your outlook is less sunny ... well... the "fail rates" kind of speak for themselves - don't they?

Regardless of your world view, the numbers paint a darker picture for repeaters: 22% and 31% on those two exams.  One chance in three. One chance in five!

It may be time to find a quiet space to ask yourself these questions. The statistical answers could tell you whether you'll need to make a mid-course correction to stave off a bar exam melt-down.

1-         How'd you do on the LSAT?

Together with undergraduate GPA, the LSAT is the most reliable statistical predictor of law school success.  It stands to reason that the better you did then, the better you're likely to do now.  Oh, and by the way, what was your undergraduate GPA?

2-         Did you go to an ABA-accredited law school?

I'm hoping for a "yes" answer here.  Attending a California-Only-Accredited or even an unaccredited California law school isn't a death knell to your ambitions to practice.  Still, consider these first-time pass rates from the July 2010 Exam:

Cal-ABA-Accredited:  75.2%   Out-Of-State-ABA Accredited:  68.1%

Cal-Accredited:            40.4%   Cal-Unaccredited:                    20.0%      

I won't speculate on the reasons why, but it's clear that if you got your law degree from other than an ABA school, your chances of passing the California Bar Exam are, at least statistically, at risk.

3-         Are you a repeater?

In 2010 12,788 people took the California Bar Examination.  Forty one percent of them were repeaters.  To be sure, they were a group with mixed educational backgrounds and mixed abilities.  Some were taking the examination for a third or subsequent time.  All that said, particularly if your study since your last attempt has just been "more of the same," you may be at risk.

Not moved by the statistics?  You may not be alone.  After all, Mark Twain was fond of saying: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics?"    There are always other, and perhaps better, questions to ask.  If you're curious about what those may be, hang on - Part 2 of The Almost Daily Word of Wisdom will scratch that itch.